Sorcery of Lastrene

Approximate value, part III

Here are the links to part I and part II.

Getting approximate values for defensive players proved to be quite a bit tougher than I had anticipated. What I’ve ended up with is a method that seems pretty sloppy, with lots of arbitrary “add three points for this” and “multiply this times 1.6″ sort of rules. But I generally like the results it gives. And since the point of this is not to be theoretically correct, but to build an objective method that matches peoples’ subjective opinions, I’m OK with it.

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I’m going to do here the opposite of what I did in parts I and II. That is, I’m going to post some lists before posting the complete methodology. The basic idea is the same on the defensive side of the ball as on the offensive: while we don’t know the contributions of each individual player, we do know what they should add up to, because we know how good the team was. So I’ve given each team defense a certain number of points, based on its points allowed per (estimated) possession compared to the league average. And then I’ve done my best to divvy up those points among those players according to: sacks (post-1982), interceptions, defensive touchdowns, tackles (post-1994), and all-pro status.

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As I mentioned above, the exact mix of those ingredients is something I arrived at by trial and error. I’ve spent a lot of time asking, why does that guy rank so high? Oh, it’s because of the way such-and-such a stat gets figured in. That needs fixing. OK, so now why is this other guy so low? Ah, I see, let’s tweak that a little.

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The main “breakthrough” here, which I’ve also applied to the offensive linemen, is that, instead of having a binary was-he-or-wasn’t-he an all-pro system, I am www levitra online kaufen viagra kaufen de now using three different degrees of all-pro-ness: first-team AP all-pro, second-team AP all-pro, and pro bowler who didn’t make the first- or second-team all-pro list. This helps to separate the Kevin Williamses from the Trent Coles. Not that there’s anything wrong with Trent Cole, but he’s no Kevin Williams.

Enough chit-chat. I’m just going to post my approximate value estimates for a handful of famous teams and a few ‘07 teams. The number immediately after each player is my approximate value estimate. The second number, which is either a 1, 2, or 3, signifies the level of all-pro-ness of that player for that year. 1=first team, 2=second team, 3=pro bowler not on first or second team. But note that this information is only figured into the system at the non-skill positions, where I feel like we don’t have the stats necessary to give them reasonable ratings without it. In other words, I’m comfortable (approximately) rating Derek Anderson and Franco Harris and Wesley Walker without knowing whether or not they made the pro bowl in a given year, but I’m not comfortable rating Jeff Saturday or Dave Duerson or Terrence Newman.

Peruse the lists and let me know what sticks out. Who’s way off? Do you see anything that appears to you to be a systematic error?

2007 patriots tom brady 26 1 randy moss 21 1 matt light 21 1 wes welker 17 2 mike vrabel 15 1 vince wilfork 13 2 logan mankins 13 2 asante samuel 13 1 dan koppen
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